The Carbon Challenge at a Glance
The Global Carbon Project again published the Global Carbon Budget during COP27 in Egypt and here are some of the highlights:
Total CO2 emissions exceeded 40 billion tons of CO2 (GtCO2) in 2022, with the current chance at 50% that warming of 1.5°C will be exceeded in 9 years.
Global fossil CO2 emissions rose approximately 1.0% to 36.6 GtCO2 in 2022
The remaining carbon budget for a 50% likelihood to limit global warming to 1.5°C, 1.7°C, and 2°C has been reduced to 380 GtCO2 (9 years at 2022 emissions levels), 730 GtCO2 (18 years) and 1230 GtCO2 (30 years).
Reaching zero CO2 emissions by 2050 requires a decrease of about 1.4 GtCO2 each year. This figure is similar to the reduction in emissions from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
What about Japan?
Globally, only four countries emit more greenhouse gases and only the USA and Russia emit more CO2 per capita than Japan. Japan’s climate track record is far from progressive as it continues to rely heavily on fossil fuels, including coal. Energy related emissions account for more than 90% of Japan's 1.1 billion tons of CO2 emissions and Japan was awarded a "fossil award" during COP27 in Egypt.
In order for Japan to meet its net-zero 2050 goals, it must reduce its CO2 output by more than 40 million tons per annum. This is quite a lofty goal as it is the approximate equivalent of the reduction in carbon emissions from the reduced energy consumption due to reduced production in manufacturing industries and decrease in the amount of passenger and freight traffic during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Japanese government and Japanese businesses have pledged their commitment to reducing emissions, however most corporate emission reductions programs will not result in real-world mitigation.
Japan used to lead the world in energy efficiency but now lags behind many nations in GDP per energy consumed. Japan has lowered its greenhouse gas emissions by about 10% over the 30 years through 2020, but the reduction mostly came from slow economic growth and a shrinking population rather than improvements in energy efficiency.
Emissions from energy generation can be reduced in a number of ways. The U.S. has achieved decarbonization by reducing power generation from coal in half from 2005 to 2020. Electricity generation from efficient natural gas plants emits approximately 60% less CO2 per unit of electrical energy than generation from coal plants
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Power Plant Operations Report
The addition of renewable energy resources continues to be pushed but the problem with investing in intermittent renewables is that the output often will not result in the significant reduction of fossil fuel based generators. Reductions associated with the purchase of renewable energy are also not always what they seem. Corporations often purchase or generate enough energy to match 100 percent of their annual consumption. However if the organization is purchasing power from the utility during times that the renewable energy resource is unavailable (night time for solar for example), they will be purchasing power that is much more carbon-intensive than the renewables it claims on paper. Corporate reductions reported in this manner do not reflect real reductions of emissions which may negatively impact the emission reductions targets that have been put in place with the Paris temperature goals.
GCT is developing actual carbon removal projects. Projects where carbon is captured and removed from the natural cycle and stored for hundreds, if not thousands of years. Please contact us if you would like to learn more about the efforts that are leading actual carbon mitigation and truly fighting climate change.
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